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Fossil CO2 emissions decrease in 2026, according to the Global Carbon Budget

10 Nov 2026

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026 – driven by expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict – according to new research by the Global Carbon Project. The 2026 Global Carbon Budget, using ICOS data among others, projects 38.2 billion tonnes of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year. 

Emissions from oil are projected to decrease by 1.9% – likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict. While global energy demand continues to rise, two thirds of the increase is being met by increased solar and wind power and electric vehicles. 

However, the report – published alongside a new paper in the journal Nature Climate Change – finds that clean energy growth is not yet fast enough for a durable decline in global fossil CO2 emissions.

With emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) projected to increase slightly this year, total CO2 emissions are projected to be 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026 – up from 42.8 billion tonnes last year. The remaining carbon budget (the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels) is now 150 billion tonnes – equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate.

With CO2 still rapidly accumulating in the atmosphere, the dangerous impacts of climate change continue to increase.

El Niño expected to have a significant impact on the land carbon sink 

The report also assesses natural sinks, in other words, the carbon uptake of land ecosystems and oceans. It finds that the land sink returned to former levels after a severe weakening during the 2023-24 El Niño weather pattern.

However, the powerful 2026 El Niño is expected to have a significant impact in the coming year.

The Global Carbon Budget is produced annually by at the Global Carbon Project, which consists of almost 100 institutions around the world, including those from the ICOS community.  The lead institution is University of Exeter, one of the host institutions of the ICOS Ocean Thematic Centre. 

“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, Director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, who led the study. “The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. While renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline."

Other key findings of the 2026 Global Carbon Budget include: 

  • Global CO2 emissions from land-use change have decreased in the past decade but are projected to rise this year to 5.1 billion tonnes. This is driven by an increase in emissions from peat fires (almost entirely ignited by human activities) and forest degradation in Southeast Asia, associated with drier conditions linked to the onset of El Niño conditions.
  • Emissions from permanent deforestation remain high at around 3.8 billion tonnes of CO2 per year over 2016-25. Permanent removals through reforestation and afforestation offset around half of the permanent deforestation emissions.
  • The largest carbon uptake through re/afforestations occurs in China, the EU27 and the USA, with combined removals 0.8 billion tonnes CO2 per year. Substantial uptake through re/afforestation also occurs in other regions such as Brazil, Russia and Indonesia – but here it is outweighed by emissions from deforestation.

On the carbon sink side, the Global Carbon Budget presents the following:

  • The ocean carbon sink has absorbed 11.1 ± 2.3 GtCO2 per year in the past decade, 27% of total emissions. The ocean sink has been relatively stagnant since 2016, largely in response to climate change and variability
  • The land carbon sink has absorbed 9.2 ± 2.4 GtCO2 per year in the past decade, 22% of total emissions. The land sink has been relatively stagnant since 2000. It shows a full rebound from the 2023-24 El Niño to 13.3 GtCO2 per year in 2025. 

  • The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 427.7 ppm in 2026, 54% above pre-industrial levels. 

The article on Nature Climate Change, in addition, found that number of countries reducing their emissions while growing their economies is clearly increasing: 59 countries emitted less in 2025 than before the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, while their economies grew. 

The Global Carbon Budget uses data from many data sources, including ICOS data that’s made available through the ICOS Carbon Portal and different global data networks, such as the World Meteorological Organization's Global Atmosphere Watch (WMO GAW), FLUXNET and Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT).


 

View the 2026 Global Carbon Budget: https://www.icos-cp.eu/impact/science/global-carbon-budget/2026

Read the Nature Climate Change article: Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R.M., Canadell, J.G. et al. A further acceleration of clean energy is needed for global CO2 emissions to peak and decline. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02821-8